Range Markets

During the upcoming trading week the release of the January US Non-farm payrolls job report, and interest rate decisions from the Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of England headline the economic docket. The US jobs report is expected to be a large improvement from the previous months heavily negative -140,000 headline number. Back to the central bank action, both the RBA and BOE are widely tipped to keep interest rates and monetary policy unchanged this week and strike a slightly more upbeat tone towards their economies.

Traders and investors also look to Australian Monthly Jobs and Retail Sales. German monthly Retail Sales and Consumer Price Inflation data will also be closely watched this week by market participants.

Monday 1st February, ISM Manufacturing Survey

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing shows business conditions in the United States manufacturing sector. The ISM Manufacturing survey is a significant indicator of the overall economic condition in the US. A monthly ISM figure above 50 is seen as positive for the US dollar currency, whereas a below 50 reading is seen as negative for the US dollar currency.

  • The EURUSD pair is only bullish while trading above the 1.2130 level, key resistance is found at the 1.2180 and 1.2200 levels.
  • If the EURUSD pair trades below the 1.2130 level, sellers may test towards the 1.2060 and 1.1900 levels.

Tuesday 2nd February, RBA Rate Decision

The Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision is the market interest rate on overnight funds, with the RBA standing as the central monetary authority for the Australian economy. The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold at this meeting, following recent rate cuts and an increase of COVID-19 infections. RBA policymakers are also tipped to strike an overall dovish tone towards the economy and monetary policy.

  • The AUDUSD pair is bearish while trading below the 0.7660 level, key support is found at the 0.7600 and 0.7500 levels.
  • If the AUDUSD pair moves above the 0.7660 level, buyers may test towards the 0.7680 and 0.7740 levels.

Wednesday 3rd February, ADP Private Sector Report

The ADP private sector jobs report is released by the Automatic Data Processing Inc and measures the change in the number of employed people in the private sector of the United States economy. A rise of this figure stimulates economic growth and is usually seen as being bullish for the US dollar currency. A weaker-than-expected number may cause traders to sell the IS dollar currency.

  • The USDCHF pair is only bearish while trading below the 0.9000 level, further downside towards the 0.8900 and 0.8800 support levels seems possible.
  • If the USDCHF pair trades above the 0.9000 level, buyers are likely to test towards the 0.9200 and 0.9380 resistance levels.

Thursday 4th February, US Continuing Jobless Claims

US Continuing Jobless Claims is released by the United States Department of Labor measure the number of individuals who are unemployed and are currently receiving unemployment benefits. It presents the strength in the labour market. A rise in this indicator has negative implications for consumer spending which discourage economic growth. Traders are likely to pay attention to this release, following last weeks a large increase in jobless claims.

  • The USDCAD pair is only bullish while trading above the 1.3000 level, key resistance is found at the 1.3120 and 1.3240 levels.
  • If the USDCAD pair trades below the 1.3000 level, sellers may test towards the 1.2800 and 1.2740 levels.

Friday 5th February, US Nonfarm Payrolls Job Report

The NFP job report shows the monthly change in employment in the American economy, excluding the farming sector. The Non-farm payrolls job report is the most carefully observed indicator in the employment situation inside the United States. It is considered the most inclusive calculation of job creation, which causes the Nonfarm Payrolls Job report to become highly significant to market participants, due to the great importance of labour in the United States economy.

  • The GBPUSD pair is only bearish while trading below the 1.3660 level, further losses towards the 1.3610 and 1.3560 levels remains possible.
  • If the GBPUSD pair trades above the 1.3660 level, buyers are likely to test the 1.3770 and 1.3840 resistance levels.

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