Range Markets

The New Zealand dollar rose against the US dollar after relatively strong economic numbers from the country. The data showed that the country’s business confidence increased to 7.0 in February mostly because of the ongoing vaccination campaign. The data came a day after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) delivered its first interest rate decision of the year. The bank left interest rates and its quantitative easing program unchanged. It also said that the country still needed substantial monetary and fiscal support.

The price of crude declined slightly after the latest inventories data by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The agency said that the number of oil inventories rose by more than 1.2 million barrels after dropping by 7.5 million barrels in the previous week. Earlier data by the American Petroleum Institute (API) also showed an increase of more than 1 million barrels. This increase was partly because of extreme weather in Texas.

The economic calendar will have several important data items today. In the European Union, the Commission will publish the latest consumer and business confidence numbers. In general, analysts expect these numbers to show that confidence rose in February as many European countries eased their restrictions. In the United States, the statistics office will publish the second reading of the US GDP data. The first estimate showed that the country’s GDP rose by 4% on a QoQ basis. Other important numbers will be the US durable goods orders and initial jobless claims.


The NZD/USD rose to a multi-year high of 0.7455. On the four-hour chart, this rally is being supported by the moving averages and the Ichimoku cloud. Oscillators like the Relative Strength Index and MACD have also risen. The pair has also moved above the important psychological level of 0.7400. Therefore, even after a slight pullback, the pair will likely resume the uptrend as bulls target the resistance at 0.7500.


The EUR/USD pair has been in a tight range recently. It is trading at 1.2162, which is slightly below this week’s high of 1.2180. On the four-hour chart, this price is a few pips above the 25-day moving average. It also seems to be forming a double top pattern, which tends to be a bearish signal. Therefore, the pair may break- out lower in the next few days. A move above 1.2170 will invalidate this.


The GBP/USD price pulled back after soaring to a multi-year high. It is trading at 1.4135, which is slightly below the year-to-date high of 1.4240. On the four-hour chart, the price remains above the short and longer-term simple moving averages (SMA). The pair will likely resume the uptrend as bulls attempt to move above the YTD high.

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