Range Markets

The price of crude oil rose slightly after the US released inventories data for the past week. Inventories increased by more than 2.4 million barrels. This was a bigger increase than the consensus estimates of a decrease of 249k barrels. In the previous week, inventories had increased by more than 1 million barrels. Meanwhile, Iran’s President said that his country will not hold any more negotiations until the US removes all sanctions. President Rouhani has been under intense pressure from Emmanuel Macron and Boris Johnson to restart talks.

The US will release the final reading of the second quarter GDP data today. The number is expected to show that the economy rose by 2.0%. The GDP price index is expected to have increased by 2.4%, which is higher than the previously reported 0.6%. GDP sales for the quarter are expected to rise by 3.1% after rising by 3.0% in the first quarter. Meanwhile, the core PCE prices are expected to rise by 1.7% while the headline PCE prices are expected to rise by 2.3%. The PCE data measures the changes in the price of goods and services bought by consumers for the purpose of consumption. The initial jobless claims are expected to rise by 212k from the previous 208k while the continuing jobless claims are expected to rise to 1,665k. The pending home sales are expected to rise by 0.9% after falling by -2.5% in the previous week.

In Europe, the market will receive the consumer climate data from Germany. Data is expected to remain unchanged at 9.7. In Sweden, the consumer confidence is expected to rise slightly to 94.2 from the previous 94.0. The country will also release the manufacturing confidence, household lending growth, trade data, and PPI. Meanwhile, the ECB will release the monthly economic bulletin. Further, traders will hear from Mario Draghi and Mark Carney later today.


The EUR/USD pair rose slightly in the Asian session. The pair is trading at 1.0963, which is the highest level since yesterday. This price is slightly below the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level. It is also slightly above the 28-day and 14-day moving averages. The RSI has been on an upward trend, moving from 17 to the current 58. Based on volumes, while the pair could continue moving higher, there is a likelihood that it will continue moving lower.


The XBR/USD pair rose to a high of 61.30 from a low of 60.20. On the hourly chart, the pair is closer to filing the gap that was created on Monday last week. The current price is along the 14-day and 28-day moving averages. The RSI has moved from a low of 20.20 to the current 46. The pair will likely continue moving lower as it tries to fill the gap. There is also a likelihood that the US and Iran will make some difficult concessions.


The GBP/USD pair declined sharply to a low of 1.2345 as traders continued to focus on Brexit. On the hourly chart, this price is along the lower line of the Bollinger Bands. The RSI has moved closer to the oversold level of 30 while the momentum indicator has moved to below 100. The pair will likely continue to move lower to test the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level of 1.2270.

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