Range Markets

The price of crude oil rose at the start of the week as the number of oil rigs stayed the same for the first time in 12 weeks. According to Baker Hughes, the total number of oil and gas rigs remained unchanged at 397 last week. The number of oil rigs dropped by 1 while the number of gas rigs rose by 1. Also, the EIA estimated that oil produced by the United States declined by 200k barrels to 10.8 million barrels. This trend was mostly because of the ongoing freeze in Texas. The freeze has led many companies to slash the number of working hours for some employees.

The US dollar rose slightly today as traders reacted to strong flash manufacturing and service PMI numbers from the United States. According to Markit, the services PMI increased from 58.3 in January to 58.9 in February. This is a sign that the US economy has started to recover. The manufacturing PMI fell from 59.2 to 58.5. Further data showed that the US existing home sales rose by 0.6% from 6.65m to 6.69m. The currency is also rising ahead of a stimulus vote in Congress that will happen this week.

The economic calendar will be relatively muted today. The most notable figures will be from Germany, where the IFO Institute will publish the current assessment and business expectations numbers. In China, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) will deliver its interest rate decision while in Turkey, the statistics office will release capacity utilisation and manufacturing confidence data.


The EUR/USD pair dropped from Friday’s close of 1.2135 to the current level of 1.2115. On the hourly chart, the price has moved below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level while the price has moved below the 25-day moving average. The pair has also formed a double top pattern. Therefore, it will likely continue dropping as traders target the next support at 1.2100.


The XBR/USD pair rose to an intraday high of 62.94. On the daily chart, this price is slightly below Friday’s high of 63.15. It is also on the same level as the right side of the head and shoulders pattern. The pair is also between the upper and middle lines of the Bollinger Bands. Therefore, the pair may resume a downward trend in the near term.


The GBP/USD dropped sharply today as focus remained on the strong US dollar. The pair fell from a high of 1.4052 to 1.4015. On the four-hour chart, the price is still between the ascending white channel. It is also wavering near the highest level in three years and is above the 25-day and 15-day exponential moving averages. Therefore, the pair may resume the upward trend later today.

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