Range Markets

After a tepid start to the week, economic data are back in focus Tuesday with Germany and France scheduled to deliver potentially market-moving releases.

The European session kicks off at 06:00 GMT with a report on industry production by Germany’s statistical agency. Output at German factories and mines likely fell 0.5% in June after rising 2.6% the month before. In annualized terms, Germany’s rate of industrial production likely rose 3%.

In a separate report, the German government will report on international trade at 06:00 GMT. Germany’s trade surplus with the rest of the world is forecast to dip slightly to €20.1 billion in June compared with €20.3 billion the month before.

Forty-five minutes later, France will issue its monthly trade report for June. Paris’ trade deficit is projected to narrow to €5.6 billion from just over €6 billion the previous month.

Shifting gears to North America, the US Department of Labor will report on the JOLTS job opening survey for the month of June. Last week, Labor said nonfarm payrolls rose by 157,000 in July as unemployment fell to 3.9% from 4%.

North of the border, the Richard Ivey School of Business will report on business conditions in Canada. The July version of the index is expected to show a gain of 1.1 percentage point to 64.2.


Europe’s common currency traded within a narrow range on Monday, a sign that traders were awaiting fresh market catalysts in the form of economic data. The EUR/USD exchange rate traded in the mid-1.1500 region, eventually consolidating around 1.1560. At the time of writing, the pair was hovering right around that level. In terms of technical levels, the pair faces immediate support at 1.1527, which corresponds with the low from 28 June. Below that, the next major support is located at 1.1500. On the opposite side of the ledger, EUR/USD is likely to run into resistance at 1.1647, the 10-day simple moving average.


Cable resumed its descent on Monday, as prices crashed below 1.3000 en route to fresh yearly lows. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD exchange rate was trading at 1.2940, where it was little changed compared with the previous close. With the latest reversal, cable risks an even bigger drop toward 1.2925, according to Commerzbank. Below that level, the pair is looking at the August 2016 low of 1.2866 as the next target.


The dollar-yen exchange rate saw its momentum fade in the latter half of Monday, as the pair continued to hold below 111.50. The dollar has witnessed multiple breakdowns against its Japanese counterpart over the past five days after the market rejected bids above 112.00. At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading at 111.33.

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