Range Markets

USD and JPY are the top G10 FX gainers today while AUD and NOK are the top losers down -0.38% each vs the dollar. EUR is weakening in early hours of trading due to fresh concerns over German politics: Chancellor Merkel has received a new setback after interior minister offered to quit amid escalating row over migration policy. the In our view, trade concerns are likely to be the key focus as market worry over sapping demand from escalating trade tensions. The USD-index also remain well bid on Monday despite completing an evening star pattern on Friday; trade concerns are likely to keep it supported around $94.20-94.40 area; below $94.20 is likely to trigger a deeper dip. In the equities space, the Asian markets have traded weak with Nikkei 225 ending the day -2.35% lower at 22,811 and Kospi finishing -2.35% lower at 2,271. The European equity indices have also had a bad start, with the FTSE down -0.66%, DAX down -0.30%, and CAC -0.80% so far. In the rates market, global yields are trading slightly weak for the day with US 10-year yield trading at 2.83%(down 2.5bp) and the Bund 10-year yield trading at 0.31% (flat for the day). In the energy space, the Brent front month is trading flat for the day at $78.63 (having opened lower for the day). In terms of data today, the UK manufacturing PMI was a beat; 54.4 actual vs 54.0 expected. The Euro-area unemployment rate came in unchanged at 8.4% while a rise to 8.5% was expected. During the US session, ISM Manufacturing PMI is the only key release. Looking ahead at the week; RBA rates decision, Riksbank rates decision, Euro-area retail sales, FOMC minutes and US NFP data will be key releases.


10-Year Yields Daily chart (6-month)



USD-Index Daily chart (2-month)



Brent Front Month Daily chart (2-month)



Trade weighted basket Hourly (one-week)




Major Currency Pairs


EURUSD Chart (Two-week)



Strategy: Resistance at 1.1686 for 1.1594
Short-term view: EUR/USD has resistance at 1.1686 MACD is topping. Hence, there are chances of a dip to 1.1594. Above 1.1686 to open 1.1735



GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)



Strategy: Support at 1.3112 for 1.3250
Short-term view: GBP/USD is bouncing from the bottom of the bear channel and MACD is bottoming. Hence, we see a bounce back to 1.3200-1.3250. A break below 1.3112 to open 1.3080.



USDJPY Chart (Two-week)



Strategy: Support at 110.39 for 111.27
Short-term view: USD/JPY broke bear channel top and moving averages are improving. Hence, we see a rise to 110.97, likely 111.27. A break below 110.39 to open 109.68



AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)



Strategy: Support at .7362 to .7441
Short-term view: AUD/USD has support at .7362 and MACD is looking to bottom. Hence, we see a bounce to .7441. Below .7362 to open .7334.



BTCUSD 4-Hour Chart (Two-month)



(Chart by Reuters)


Strategy: Resistance at $6615 for $5964
Short-term view: BTC/USD resistance comes in around 6615 and bear channel top is approaching hence, we are looking for a correction within the channel to 5964. Above 6615 is likely to open a test of 6857 where a break will confirm a competion of a base.



Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *