Range Markets

AUD and NZD are the top G10 FX gainers today, up 0.26% and 0.21% while SEK and JPY are the top losers down -0.43% and -0.41% vs the dollar, respectively. SEK is falling after a weaker than expected inflation numbers; the CPIF disappointed slightly (2.2% actual vs 2.3% consensus). Riksbank minutes were also released but there was nothing majorly new. USDJPY has now broken a key level at 111.50 (long-term downtrend) and this is likely to weigh on JPY over the coming days. In the equities space, the Asian markets traded largely in black with Nikkei 225 ending the day +1.17% higher at 22,187 and Hang Seng rising +0.60% to 28,480. The European equity indices have also had a similar story, with the FTSE up +0.54%, DAX up +0.18%, and CAC up +0.24% so far. In the rates market, global yields are trading slightly firm for the day with the US 10-year yield trading at 2.86% and the Bund 10-year yield trading at 0.31%. In the energy space, the Brent (front month) is trading slightly firm at $74.90, having fallen sharply on Wednesday on the back of trade wars. In terms of data, US CPI remains the key release for today. We will also see the release of ECB monetary policy minutes and Brexit white paper. In our view, GBP is vulnerable to Brexit news.


10-Year Yields Daily chart (6-month)



USD-Index Daily chart (2-month)



Brent Front Month Daily chart (2-month)



Trade weighted basket Hourly (one-week)




Major Currency Pairs


EURUSD Chart (Two-week)



Strategy: Support at 1.1631 for 1.1733


Short-term view: EUR/USD has support at 1.1631 and MACD is oversold. Hence, there are chances of a bounce to 1.1733. Below 1.1733 to open 1.1593.



GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)



Strategy: Resistance at 1.3261 for 1.3175


Short-term view: GBP/USD has come back in the bear channel and MACD is still looking to fall further. Hence, we see a dip to 1.3175. A break above 1.3261 to open 1.3304.



USDJPY Chart (Two-week)



Strategy: Support at 111.61 for 112.82


Short-term view: USD/JPY has broken a key resistance at 111.61 and daily MACD is looking to move higher. Hence, we see a rise to 112.82. A break below 111.61 to open 111.27.



AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)



Strategy: Support at .7334 for .7428


Short-term view: AUD/USD has support at .7334 and MACD is bottoming. Hence we see a bounce to .7428. Below .7334 to open .7289-.7312.



BTCUSD 4-Hour Chart (Two-month)



(Chart by Reuters)


Strategy: Resistance at $6386 for $5826
Short-term view: BTC/USD resistance comes in around 6386 and MACD has turned bearish hence, we are looking for a further downside to 5826. Above 6386 to open a test head and shoulders neckline.



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