Range Markets

NOK and GBP are the top FX (G10) gainers today, up +0.34% and +0.21%(vs USD) while JPY and CAD are the top losers down -0.11% and -0.12% (vs USD), respectively. The Trump press brief post-summit with North Korea leader Kim Jong Un set an optimistic tone; he said that ‘North Korea is ready to start a new history’. In our view, this optimism is likely to be short-lived because the document signed is light on details. Also, the US CPI today, the Fed rates decision tomorrow and the ECB monetary policy meeting on Thursday are big events this week. In the equities space, the Asian markets have risen today with the Nikkei 225 ending the day +0.33% higher at 22,878 and Hang Seng finishing up +0.13% at 31,103. The European equity indices, however, are trading mixed, with the FTSE down -0.44%, DAX up +0.16%, and CAC down -0.16%. In the rates market, the yields are trading slightly firm with US 10-year yield trading at 2.96% and the Bund 10-year yield trading at 0.51%. In the energy space, the Brent front month is trading firmer for the day at $76.94, currently testing the top of a bear channel. In terms of data today, the UK employment data have come strong (146k jobs actual vs 110K consensus). This keeps on track a BoE rate hike in August; though average earnings have underwhelmed (2.8% actual vs 2.9% consensus) it is unlikely to worry the MPC. That said, there is the Brexit vote today and CPI tomorrow.


10-Year Yields Daily chart (6-month)



USD-Index Daily chart (2-month)



Brent Front Month Daily chart (2-month)



Trade weighted basket Hourly (one-week)




Major Currency Pairs


EURUSD Chart (Two-week)



Strategy: Resistance at 1.1838 for 1.1735
Short-term view: EUR/USD has resistance at 1.1838 and uptrend has broken. Hence, we see a deeper setback to 1.1700-1.1735. Above 1.1838 to open 1.1875.


GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)



Strategy: Resistance at 1.3436 to open 1.3296
Short-term view: GBP/USD broken a bull channel base and MACD has entered negative territory. Hence, we see a dip to 1.3296-1.3320. A break above 1.3436 to open 1.3487.


USDJPY Chart (Two-week)



Strategy: Resistance at 110.65 for 109.53
Short-term view: USD/JPY has resistance at 110.65 and MACD has entered overbought area. Hence, we see a dip to 109.53. A break above 110.65 to open 110.97


AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)



Strategy: Support at 0.7578 for .7653
Short-term view: AUD/USD has support at .7578 and MACD has turned positive. Hence, we may see a bounce to .7653. Below .7578 to open .7552c


BTCUSD 4-Hour Chart (Two-month)



(Chart by Reuters)


Strategy: Support at $6628 for $7223
Short-term view: BTC/USD support comes in around 6628 and MACD is bottoming hence, we are looking for a correction within the channel to 7223. Below 6628 is likely to accelerate losses to 6346.


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