Range Markets

JPY and NOK are the top G10 FX gainers, up 0.15% & 0.7% respectively today while AUD and CHF are the top losers down -0.17% and -0.04% vs the dollar, respectively. In the equities space today, the Nikkei 225 decreased 24 points or 0.11% at 22,590, Hang Seng also decreased 153 points or 0.53% to 28,776 while the Kospi increased 16 points or 0.71% to 2,289. The European equity indices again mixed so far this morning, with FTSE 100 down -0.10%, DAX up 1.30%, and CAC up 0.70%. In the energy space, the Brent (front month) is trading firm for the day at $74.60 at the time of writing. Last night President Trump and EU Commission President Jean-Claude Junker agreed to de-escalate their bitter trade dispute and work towards zero tariffs. We agreement made on Wednesday night would ‘work together on zero tariffs, zero non-tariff barriers and zero subsidies’ on non-car goods, with Trump saying ‘this was a very big day for free and fair trade, a very big day indeed’.In terms of data today, we have the ECB Interest Rate Decision at 11:45am GMT followed by the ECB Press Conference at 12:30pm GMT. Again, the consensus is for the ECB to leave rates, tapering, and guidance unchanged at the meeting. We do not expect a significant reaction from the press conference. EUR remains well supported around the 1.15 area and EURUSD positioning is nearly at its lowest in over a year. Hence, this is a good opportunity to build longs if ECB is not overly dovish. Durable Goods & Initial Jobless claims US numbers are released in the afternoon. 


USD-Index Daily chart (2-month)



Brent Front Month Daily chart (6-month)



Trade weighted basket Hourly (one-week)




Major Currency Pairs


EURUSD Chart (Two-week)



Strategy: Resistance at 1.1737 for 1.1651
Short-term view: EUR/USD EUR/USD we had support at 1.1651 to target 1.1737. Hence, with 1.1737 now met there is potential for 1.1765. Below 1.1737 for 1.1651.


GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)



Strategy: Resistance at 1.3204 for 1.3043
Short-term view: GBP/USD target of 1.3157 met, now we could see a move to 1.3043. A break above 1.3157 to open 1.3204.


USDJPY Chart (Two-week)



Strategy: Support at 110.75 for 111.61
Short-term view: USD/JPY has support at 110.75, left a doji on Monday’s candle and MACD is looking to move higher. Hence, we see a bounce to 111.61, possibly 112.10. A break below 110.75 to open 110.39.


AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)



Strategy: Support at .7362 for .7474
Short-term view: AUD/USD has support at .7362 and MACD is still above the uptrend. Hence we see a bounce to .7474. Below .7362 to open .7334..


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