Range Markets

During the upcoming trading week the release of the April US Non-farm payrolls job report and the ISM Manufacturing report headline the economic docket. The US jobs report is expected to show another improvement from the previous months number, with economists forecasting that the US economy created 925,000 jobs last month. The ISM manufacturing headline number is also going to be closely followed by market participants this week as the report is expected to show more strong economic activity.

Traders and investors also look to interest rate decisions from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England. Most economists are not expecting any action from either central bank. Jobs numbers from the New Zealand and Canadian economies will also be closely watched this week.

Monday 3rd May, ISM Manufacturing Survey

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing shows business conditions in the United States manufacturing sector. The ISM Manufacturing survey is a significant indicator of the overall economic condition in US. A monthly ISM figure above 50 is seen as positive for the US dollar currency, whereas a below 50 reading is seen as negative for the US dollar currency.

  • The EURUSD pair is only bullish while trading above the 1.2080 level, key resistance is found at the 1.2150 and 1.2230 levels.
  • If the EURUSD pair trades below the 1.2080 level, sellers may test towards the 1.1980 and 1.1930 levels.

Tuesday 4th May, RBA Interest Rate Decision

The Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision is the market interest rate on overnight funds, with the RBA standing as the central monetary authority for the Australian economy. The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold at this meeting, and talk down the Australian dollar currency. RBA policymakers are also tipped to strike an overall dovish tone towards the economy and monetary policy.

  •  The AUDUSD pair is bearish while trading below the 0.7860 level, key support is found at the 0.7660 and 0.7500 levels.
  • If the AUDUSD pair moves above the 0.7860 level, buyers may test towards the 0.7930 and 0.8000 levels.

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Wednesday 5th May, ADP Private Sector Report

The ADP private sector jobs report is released by the Automatic Data Processing Inc, and measures the change in the number of employed people in the private sector of the United States economy. A rise of this figure stimulates economic growth, and is usually seen as being bullish for the US dollar currency. A weaker-than-expected number may cause traders to sell the IS dollar currency.

  • The USDCHF pair is only bearish while trading below the 0.9200 level, further downside towards the 0.9080 and 0.8990 support levels seems possible.
  • If the USDCHF pair trades above the 0.9200 level, buyers are likely test towards the 0.9290 and 0.9380 resistance levels.

Thursday 6th May, US Continuing Jobless Claims

US Continuing Jobless Claims is released by the United States Department of Labor measure the number of individuals who are unemployed and are currently receiving unemployment benefits. It presents the strength in the labor market. A rise in this indicator has negative implications for consumer spending which discourage economic growth. Traders are likely to pay attention to this release, following last weeks large increase in jobless claims.

  • The USDCAD pair is only bullish while trading above the 1.2470 level, key resistance is found at the 1.2550 and 1.2640 levels.
  • If the USDCAD pair trades below the 1.2470 level, sellers may test towards the 1.2200 and 1.2000 levels.

Friday 7th May US Nonfarm Payrolls Job Report

The NFP job report shows the monthly change in employment in the American economy, excluding the farming sector. The Non-farm payrolls job report is the most carefully observed indicator in the employment situation inside the United States. It is considered the most inclusive calculation of job creation, which causes the Nonfarm Payrolls Job report to become highly significant to market participants, due to the great importance of labour in the United States economy.

  • The GBPUSD pair is only bearish while trading below the 1.3860 level, further losses towards the 1.3670 and 1.3560 levels remains possible.
  • If the GBPUSD pair trades above the 1.3860 level, buyers are likely to test the 1.4010 and 1.4180 resistance levels.

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