Range Markets

During the upcoming  trading week market participants look to the monthly jobs report from the US economy and a host of central bank policy decisions. The Nonfarm payrolls job report headlines the economic docket this week, with most economists expecting the lowest monthly US jobs figure ever recorded. Traders and investors will also be closely monitoring monetary policy decisions from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England this week.

Other highlights on the economic calendar include Manufacturing PMI numbers from the Chinese, Japanese, EU, United Kingdom, and Canadian economies. Traders also look at Services and Construction PMI data from the United Kingdom economy.

Monday 4th May, EU Manufacturing PMI

The EU Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index is released by Markit Economics and measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. The manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in the eurozone because the manufacturing sector represents nearly a quarter of total GDP. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector and below 50 indicates contraction.

  • The EURUSD pair is only bearish while trading below the 1.1000 level, key support is found at the 1.0900 and 1.0845 levels.
  • If the EURUSD pair trades above the 1.1000 level, buyers will likely test towards the 1.1070 and 1.1130 resistance levels.

Tuesday 5th May, RBA Rate Decision

The Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision is the market interest rate on overnight funds, with the RBA standing as the central monetary authority for the Australian economy. The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold at this meeting, following recent rate cuts. RBA policymakers are also tipped to strike an overall dovish tone towards the economy and monetary policy.

  • The AUDUSD pair is bearish while trading below the 0.6100 level, key support is found at the 0.6000 and 0.5880 levels.
  • If the AUDUSD pair moves above the 0.6100 level, buyers may test towards the 0.6280 and 0.6440 levels.

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Wednesday 6th May, US Private Sector Jobs

The ADP Private Sector employment change jobs report is released by the US Automatic Data Processing Inc and measures the change in the number of people employed inside the American private sector. A rise of this figure is seen as positive and good for stimulating US economic growth, while a weaker-than-expected number is seen as bearish and a possible indicator for future economic weakness.

  • The USDCHF pair is only bearish while trading below the 0.9770 level, further downside towards the 0.9610 and 0.9540 support levels seems possible.
  • If the USDCHF pair trades above the 0.9770 level, buyers are likely test towards the 1.0000 and 1.0090 resistance levels.

Thursday 7th May, US Initial Jobless Claims

The Initial Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. In other words, it provides a measure of strength in the labor market. A larger than expected number indicates weakness in this market which influences the strength and direction of the US economy. Generally speaking, a decreasing number should be taken as positive or bullish for the US dollar.

  • The USDCAD pair is only bullish while trading above the 1.3800 level, further gains towards 1.4100 and 1.4350 levels remain likely.
  • If the USDCAD pair trades below the 1.3800 level, sellers may test towards the 1.3660 and 1.3450 support levels.

Friday 8th May, US Nonfarm Payrolls Job Report

The NFP job report shows the monthly change in employment in the American economy, excluding the farming sector. The Non-farm payroll job report is the most carefully observed indicator in the employment situation inside the United States. It is considered the most inclusive calculation of job creation, which causes the Nonfarm Payrolls Job report to become highly significant to market participants, due to the great importance of labour in the United States economy.

  • The USDJPY pair is bearish while trading below the 107.00 level, further losses towards the 105.50 and 104.50 levels remains possible.
  • If the USDJPY pair trades above the 107.00 level, buyers are likely to test the 108.60 and 110.00 resistance levels.

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