Range Markets

  • USD/INR bounces off intraday low but stays mildly offered.
  • Downside break of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, MACD signal back sellers.
  • Weekly closing beyond 74.50 could convince buyers, 17-month-old support line tests bears.

USD/INR remains on a back foot, despite recent corrective pullback to 72.86, down 0.07% intraday, amid early Monday.

In doing so, the Indian rupee (INR) pair keeps the previous week’s downside break of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of September 2019 to April 2020 upside. Also favoring the USD/INR sellers is the MACD conditions that tease bears of late.

It should, however, be noted that an ascending trend line from December 2019, around 72.50, becomes the tough nut to crack for USD/INR sellers.

In a case where the quote drops below 72.50 on a weekly closing, 72.20 and the 72.00 support levels could return to the chart ahead of highlighting the late 2019 lows near 70.40.

Alternatively, corrective pullback needs to cross the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 73.22 to lure the short-term buyers. Even so, 50% Fibonacci retracement and a horizontal line since mid-2020, respectively around 74.10 and 74.55, will test the USD/INR bulls afterward.

If at all the USD/INR prices rally beyond 74.55, which is likely considering the lower high formation since early 2020, the yearly top near 75.65 will be challenged.


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